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The curious case of a Brueghel the Younger lot estimate

A very nice version of “Wedding Dance in the Open Air” by Pieter Brueghel the Younger is coming up for auction shortly at Christies Paris on November 21, 2024 in the auction “Maîtres Anciens : Peintures – Dessins – Sculptures” (Live auction 23018).  (This work is called “The Wedding Dance” in this auction.)

The consensus is that this painting is most likely a copy of a lost work by Brueghel’s father, Pieter Bruegel the Elder.  (It is also possible that the composition could be a combination of elements from various wedding dance scenes that his father painted.) 

We can’t help but wonder why the estimate is so far removed from the price realized when the lot was last sold 13 years ago.  When sold by Sotheby’s New York on June 9, 2011, the price realized was $512,500 on an estimate of $300,000 – $500,000. 

The current estimate for the Christie’s sale is €120,000 – €180,000.  Why the lot now carries an estimate 25% – 35% of the price realized in 2011 is puzzling. 

While we are not an expert at setting auction estimates, such a low estimate is perplexing.  In our experience, wide swings in valuation would typically occur under a few circumstances:

• Change in authorship:  While the work was sold in 2011 as “Pieter Brueghel the Younger and Studio,” perhaps it was purchased with the belief that the attribution could be changed to a fully autograph work of Brueghel the Younger.  However, since the price realized was not far from the estimate, this appears unlikely. 
• Market for the artist’s work: Some artist’s works fluctuate in price due to the artist becoming more (or less) popular.  Based on other recent Pieter Brueghel the Younger works at auction over the last few years, interest in the artist continues to be strong, and high prices achieved.  It is unlikely that change of interest in Brueghel the Younger’s work resulted in a lower estimate.
• Lack of due diligence / research:  As mentioned above, traditionally this work is called “Wedding Dance in the Open Air.” The current work is listed as “La Danse de Noces” (“The Wedding Dance”). Perhaps this is a careless error by Christie’s, who may not have done their research in order to properly name the work.  Similarly, Christie’s may not have conducted due diligence to determine how much the work sold for when it was last at auction.

We will be closely watching the outcome of the sale to understand if the €120,000 – €180,000 is an accurate estimate, or if the hammer price will soar to the heights achieved when it was last auctioned.